Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia¹; Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia² :

I. V. Filimonova, Chief Researcher¹, Head of Chair², Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences, filimonovaiv@list.ru

Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia:
I. V. Provornaya, Senior Researcher, Candidate of Economic Sciences
M. V. Mishenin, Senior Researcher, Candidate of Economic Sciences

Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia:

A. V. Komarova, Senior Lecturer

The study aims to review the stable trends in the hard-to-recover oil production as a factor of income from oil and gas reserves in the budgetary nomenclature. The authors have thoroughly examined the concessionality mechanism in the hard-to-recover reserve asset management in generation of income from oil and gas. It is shown that the tax regulations have experienced an essential modification in the recent decade, and the mining tax rate is calculated as the reference rate multiplied by different factors regarding changes in the market, geological, physicochemical and field characteristics and conditions of oil production. The impact analysis of the change in the oil industry structure in Russia shows that hard-to-recover reserves become increasingly more important. In 2018 the hard-to-recover oil production totaled 246 Mt which exceeded the previous year figure by 18 %. Worsening of mining conditions is accompanied by an increased loss in the income of the federal budget; however, the role of earnings from natural resources yet remains high. The long-term objective of reduction in the budget dependence on income from oil and gas is still unachievable due to high volatility of oil prices. It is shown that these trends will be connected with hard-to-recover reserves, while the regional role of the Arctic and East Siberia will only grow. As a consequence, the tax deductions will consistently rise. Furthermore, in the mid-term, it is planned to develop reserves and resources of the Bazhenov, Abalak, Khadum and Domanikov Formations, which will undoubtedly complicate fiscal mode of oil and gas tax.
The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Project No. 18-310-20010, and by the President of Russia, Grant No. NSH-2571.2020.6.

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