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ArticleName Forecast of regional structure of oil production in Russia
DOI 10.17580/em.2020.01.05
ArticleAuthor Filimonova I. V., Nikitenko S. M., Provornaya I. V., Dzyuba Yu. А.

Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia1 ; Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia2:

Filimonova I. V.1,2, Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences,
Dzyuba Yu. А.1,2, Junior Researcher

Institute of Coal, Federal Research Center for Coal and Coal Chemistry, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Kemerovo, Russia:

Nikitenko S. M., Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences
Provornaya I. V., Candidate of Economic Sciences


The article analyzes stable trends of change in the regional structure of oil production in Russia and in the world. The authors show the objective laws of the modern development in the global oil supply system—inter-fuel competition and regional differentiation of hydrocarbon production. The Russian and foreign researches in the area of the “resource curse” and “Dutch disease” are reviewed. The implemented retrospective analysis of oil production dynamics in Russia makes it possible to single out development stages in main oil and gas provinces and to identify determinant factors of the development intensity. The current state of the oil industry is considered with regard to the transformation of the global oil supply system. The authors highlight the features and causes of change in the regional structure of oil production in Russia in the traditional and new directions of economic development. The patterns of geographical displacement of oil extraction centers are analyzed, the stages of oil production expansion in the country are specified, and the deployment of the production capacities is determined: Northern Caucasus, Volga–Ural oil and gas province, Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, Russian Far East, including the Sakhalin Island, and the Arctic. The authors pay special attention to the technologies of oil recovery. In this study, the stable trends of change in the volume of production drilling are revealed. The average daily production rates of wells, average drilling depth of production wells, oil extraction percentage and operating well stock in new fields with commissioning period not longer than 5 years are calculated. The future change in the geography of the Russian oil industry, as well as the main tasks of prospecting, exploration and development of oil reservoirs in the medium and long term are substantiated. The forecast of oil production in Russia up to 2040 with the differentiation by oil and gas basins is made.

The studies were supported by the Russian Science Foundation, Grant No. 17-78-20218: Spatial specialization and integrated development of mineral-producing regions.

The authors appreciate participation of L. V. Eder, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Center for Oil and Gas Subsurface Management Economics at the Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences these studies.

keywords World oil supply system, oil production forecast, inter-fuel competition, regions, Arctic, Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, Far East, Volga–Ural oil and gas province, Bazhenov Formation

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