Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia):

S. A. Roginko, Prof., head of the Center for Ecology and Development of the RAS Institute of Europe, e-mail: roginko@bk.ru

Subject of the analysis is the EU initiative of introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, developed within the framework of the «European Green Deal» adopted in 2019, and its possible impact on the Russian iron & steel industry. Special attention is paid to the assessment of the risks of the Russian iron & steel industry in the event of the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, including issues of competitiveness and export niche in the EU market. Forecasts of direct financial losses of exporters in the form of reduction or disappearance of export margins, as well as possible indirect losses in the event of export termination are given. The impact on this perspective of the dynamics of the price per unit of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the European carbon market is tracked and a forecast of their possible increase in the near future is given. A comparative analysis of the sensitivity of products of the first and second processing stages in the ferrous metallurgy to cross-border carbon taxation in Russia and its leading competitors in the EU market, including certain technological barriers for reducing greenhouse gas emissions at Russian metallurgical enterprises, is carried out. Forecasts of the possible effect of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in the form of the European steel market resharing are evaluated.

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