Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia:

Yu. A. Plakitkin, Head of the Center for Analysis and Innovation in Energy, Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Academician of the Academy of Mining Sciences
L. S. Plakitkina, Head of the Research Center for Coal Industry in the World and in Russia, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, luplak@rambler.ru
K. I. Dyachenko, Senior Researcher of the Center for Coal Industry in the World and in Russia, Candidate of Engineering Science

The Paris climate agreement and the restrictions introduced in connection with them boosted the decarbonization efforts and the global energy transition to renewable energy sources and hydrogen. For this reason, many countries have closed their coal-fired thermal power plants, switched to green energy sources and approved the concept of low-carbon development in the period up to 2050 (2060). In this regard, the domestic coal industry faced the risks of not only an accelerated reduction in coal production and exports, but also the risk of a possible complete closure of coal mines. In 2020, coal production in the world decreased by 4.9%, to 7.4 billion tons compared to the previous year. Russia remained the world’s 6th coal producer with 401.6 million tons of coal produced, including 312.9 million tons of power-generating coal. Russia’s share in the global coal production in 2020 was 5.5%. In connection with the introduction of cross-border carbon regulation, the burden on the Russian coal producers may reach significant proportions. Russia believes the EU’s new crossborder carbon tax is contrary to WTO rules in terms of trying to equalize products made in the EU with minimal CO₂ emissions with products from other countries that use technologies with high CO₂ emissions. However, many COP26 participants stressed that trans-carbon regulation could become the norm in the coming years and have a significant impact on hydrocarbon markets and trade flows. The analysis of these major factors and the current ratio and rates in production of power-generating coal makes the framework for the coal production prediction under conditions of low-carbon energy economy.

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