Author 1:
Name & Surname: Puchkov L. A.
Company: Strategic Research Center of Mining Institute of National University of Science and Technology “MISiS” (Moscow, Russia)
Scientific Degree: Corresponding member RAS
Contacts: nok52@mail.ru

Author 2:
Name & Surname: Kaledina N. O.
Company: Strategic Research Center of Mining Institute of National University of Science and Technology “MISiS” (Moscow, Russia)
Work Position: Professor
Scientific Degree: Doctor of Engineering Sciences

Author 3:
Name & Surname: Kobylkin S. A.
Company: Strategic Research Center of Mining Institute of National University of Science and Technology “MISiS” (Moscow, Russia)
Work Position: Assistant Professor
Scientific Degree: Candidate of Engineering Sciences

The natural science-based approach to the assessment of risk of various processes uses energy mechanisms existing in natural, engineering and human systems. It is an established fact that global energy consumption by civilization obeys the principle of least action and the principle of equivalence of mass and energy, which allows interpreting global energy consumption as the Einstein law of mass–energy equivalence where the population size is the human biomass. The law of mass–energy equivalence in this case is expressed as follows: Е = bР, where Е is energy in Bt AD; b is a constant equal to annual energy consumption per capita in t AD/year and preserving its value over the entire period of mankind evolution. This is a natural and optimized energy consumption standard. This theory fairly well describes an economic crisis as a consequence of excessive energy consumption, exceeding the limits set by the natural laws. The excess of the natural standard by 12.5% is critical: a global crisis starts at the moment when the excess global energy consumption (GEC) reaches this value and continues until the GEC function arrives at the optimum level. This article describes the recession development ranges depending on the excessive GEC. It is shown that on transition to the elementary level of the system, i.e. on the personal level of energy consumption, the similarity of risks should be observed. The authors compare energy consumption with a human organism to prove similarity of the systems, which speaks about applicability of GEC as a criterion of the recession risk assessment in mine-engineering and human systems.

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