Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia:

L. S. Plakitkina, Head of a Laboratory, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, luplak@rambler.ru

The article presents the state of development in the coal industry in the Kuznetsk Coal Basin, including reserves, production and supply of coal. The main mines, open-cuts and processing plants constructed recently in Kuzbass are listed. Coal production strategies of the leading coal mining companies and the required investment in 2015 and for the future are described. The list of unprofitable mines and open-cuts to be closed is given. The new terms and conditions of bidding for new mining licenses are presented. These terms and conditions had been developed by the Ministry of Natural Resources in 2014 and obligate a licensee to close at his own expense old unprofitable mines adjacent to the licensee’s mining site. The most probable development corridor for coal mining in the Kemerovo Region is described for the period to 2035. On the whole, the Kemerovo Region might enjoy higher coal production up to 235 Mt of (best scenario) given favorable commercial opportunities on the world and domestic market of energy resources. To implement this scenario, it is planned to commission new coal mines, including Tagaryshskaya, Polysaevskaya, Olzherasskaya-Glubokaya, Yuzhno-Sibirskaya, Erunakovskaya-1, Uvalnaya, Sibirskaya, Butovskaya, Mrasskaya Mines and Osinniki open-cut as well as Erunakovsky-4, Alardisnky-Vostochny-1, Teshsky and other mining sites. The first-order requirement is modernization of operating mines and, most importantly, deep beneficiation of coal. Otherwise, it is not excluded that Kuznetsk coal production drops by 19.4% as compared with 2014 (worst scenario). The author gives forecasts of coal production and average price per 1 t of Kuznetsk coal. According to the draft Energy Strategy of Russia for the period until 2035, in the Kuznetsk Basin, it is anticipated to produce up to 209 Mt under “conservative” scenario and up to 233 Mt of coal under “target” scenario. Based on the analysis of international data, the average price of Kuzbass thermal coal evaluated in U.S. dollars at the rate of 2013, using simulation model developed at the Energy Research Institute, can rise from USD 32 in 2013 to USD 58.2–58.4 in 2035.

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