National University of Science and Technology “MISiS” (Moscow, Russia):

V. V. Brinza, Dr. Eng., Director of Scientific and Research Center of Technological Forecasting; e-mail: viachbrinza@mail.ru

I. P. Ilyichev, Cand. Econ., Head of Department of Applied Economy

V. V. Loginova, 1st category research engineer

O. A. Ugarova, Post-graduate

O. N. Perk, Research Engineer, has also participated in this work.

Multi-factor predicting model of EEA for industrial companies has been realized in this work as a tool for prediction of efficient variants of their development. The model is based on the multi-disciplinary matrix method of qualitative simulation that is based on analytical method of weighted directed graph with pulsed components. Rational visualization of simulated system has been achieved via examination of its hierarchic structure. Multiple influence on the system of external media elements has been taken into account. Initial information for simulation has been received during the cycle of collective expertise; the chief managers and leading specialists of the company, occupying one of the top places in the national metallurgy, participated in this expertise. EEA medium-term forecast has been received for the company using the model in the framework of inertial scenario of its development. High authenticity of prediction results is confirmed. Possibilities of realization of EEA-connected multi-scenario predicting simulation of activity direction of an industrial company are determined.

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