Institute of the World Economy and International Relations (Moscow, Russia):

Adno Yu. L., head of the sector, e-mail: adno@eurasmet.ru

It is suggested that the global economy will probably save the moderate positive dynamics of post-crisis restoration growth. This conclusion is based on the figures for 2013–2015 presented by the World Economic Outlook. But Russian economy is still characterized by serious problems caused by pressure of sanctions and essential lowering of global oil prices. It restricts significantly possibilities of economical growth and requires accepting of special anti-crisis measures. The most short-term forecasts relating to the Russian metallurgy are pessimistic. The main directions of return to the post-crisis growth are connected evidently with keeping profitability at the satisfied level and strict control of expenses in the conditions of active state support. Metal export is still rather active driver, but it can’t compensate completely other negative factors, i.e. substantial lowering of global prices for metal products. However, these negative factors are partly neutralized by large-scale modernization policy that has been conducts timely by Russian metal producers earlier. The paper also analyses the factors of the new economical policy in China. It is also displayed that the global metallurgy is still in recession, meaning fi rst of all steel consumption.

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