Saint-Petersburg Mining University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia:

E. I. Kabanov, Associate Professor, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, kabanov_ei@pers.spmi.ru
G. I. Korshunov, Professor, Doctor of Engineering Sciences
V. A. Rodionov, Associate Professor, Candidate of Engineering Sciences

The paper is devoted to the creation of methane and dust explosion risk assessment method for coal mines for implementation of the risk-oriented approach to supervisory activities and also for solving the information support problems in managerial decisions making procedures, which aims to reducing the probability of methane and dust explosions in underground workings of coal mines. The premises for transition to the dynamic model of the risk-oriented approach are indicated. The information about dynamics of fatal injuries coefficient for underground coal mining for the last 10 years is provided. The model of expert system, based on fuzzy logic, is proposed. The model is designed for risk assessment in condition of information uncertainty in case of incompleteness or lack of reliable data about the impact of risk factors on the mine safety level. On the basis of the investigation of accidents materials in Russia in 2006-2017, the structural scheme of the expert system was created. Input parameters of the model and results of expert assessment of risk factors are described. The fuzzy logic inference knowledge base was created with using of the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox computing environment for taking into account the influence of the complex of geological, technical and subjective factors on the risk of methane and dust explosions. The developed model allows ranking the coal mine sites according to the explosions risk levels, which was proved by processing of the initial data sample. The developed model can be integrated into multifunctional safety systems to assess the risk of various type accidents in real time.

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