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Economics and management of production
ArticleName Prospects of global markets of primary aluminium and alumina. Part 1. Development of forecasting system of aluminium market
ArticleAuthor Arlyuk В. I.

The results of investigation cycle for development of the system for long-term forecast of global prices for primary aluminium and metallurgical alumina are presented. These investigations have been conducted during 1998–2007 and forecast of global prices until 2015 have been made at present time. The forecast takes into account the economical recession in the USA started in 2008; it can be overcome probably in 2009. For the future years the permanent growth of global economics appr. 3 % per year was used, it corresponds to the average development rates for the western countries during last 20 years. Obtained results of the forecast of average parameters of the global market of primary aluminium and metallurgical alumina are useful information for investors and producers in estimation of the prospects of aluminium industry.

keywords Primary aluminium, alumina, prices, global market, forecast system, model identification
Language of full-text russian
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