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ArticleName Efficiency of seismic events cumulative effect parameter in prediction of geodynamic phenomena in rockburst-hazardous deposits in the Norilsk province
DOI 10.17580/gzh.2021.02.01
ArticleAuthor Marysyuk V. P., Shilenko S. Yu., German V. I., Mulev S. N.

NorNickel’s Polar Division, Norilsk, Russia:

V. P. Marysyuk, Chief Geotechnical Engineer—Director of Geodynamic Safety Center, Candidate of Engineering Sciences,
S. Yu. Shilenko, Director of Production and Occupational Safety Department


Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia:

V. I. German, Chief Seismologist, Associate Professor, Candidate of Engineering Sciences


VNIMI, Saint-Petersburg, Russia:

S. N. Mulev, Director of Science


The microseismicity method of ground control enjoys increasingly wider application. It is critical to have an efficiency evaluation procedure for prediction parameters, which can assist in solution of such applied problems as: reasoned selection of threshold values for prediction parameters, necessary adjustment of input data, comparison of efficiency of different parameters and adoption of the most suitable parameters for specific areas with regard to their features. This article presents the related sequential and formalized analysis as a case-study of ore body S-2 in Skalisty Mine. The seismic events cumulative effect parameter S has exhibited sufficient efficiency in the case-study of data from high-active zone A in ore body S-2 in Skalisty Mine. The critical level assumed in the procedure enables efficient prediction of a third of strong seismic events with energy emission of 4500 J and above. Prediction of higher percentage of such events needs lower value of the critical level to be set. The developed approach to the formalized evaluation of efficiency of prediction parameters is recommended for the actual introduction in seismic monitoring of rockburst-hazardous deposits.
The authors appreciate participations of experts L. V. Kokoshina, E. V. Rodionova, M. V. Tereshchenko.

keywords Norilsk mines, prediction efficiency, rockburst hazard, seismic monitoring, seismicity net effect parameter, failure

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